Rising internal Iraqi Kurdish tensions risk civil war
With popular anger rising over the secession referendum failure and Kirkuk rout, planned polls are delayed indefinitely
The electoral commission in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) yesterday postponed much-deferred presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for November 1. It blamed the recent clashes when Iraqi federal forces took Kirkuk and other disputed areas from the retreating Kurdish peshmerga militias, as well as a lack of presidential candidates (current KRI President Masoud Barzani is not eligible to stand again). The withdrawal from Kirkuk has created a political crisis in the KRI. The ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) blames the opposition Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) for collusion with Baghdad; and is in turn blamed for insufficient planning before holding the September 25 independence referendum that provoked the crisis. The KDP and PUK fought a bitter civil war in 1992-96.
Our judgement
Without elections, Barzani, whose term officially expired in 2013 but was extended because of the Islamic State threat, will remain in office. Parliament, largely dysfunctional since 2015, will now suffer even deeper divisions, likely leaving Barzani to rule by decree. Simultaneously, Baghdad may seek to empower the dominant PUK faction that cooperated with its advance. With an imminent economic crisis because of the loss of oil revenue and trade routes, there is a significant risk of renewed civil conflict.