Russian-US arms treaties erode in new era of mistrust
Decades of commitment to curbing nuclear arms are coming to an end, with no vision of an alternative to competition
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on March 5 that Moscow would deploy intermediate-range missiles in any region where the United States did so, but would avoid being drawn into an arms race. The likely end of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty will be an important marker in the decline of international stability and a particular blow to long-held assumptions about European security. It comes at a time when US-Russian dialogue has stalled and uncertainties about intentions and evolving technologies abound.
Our judgement
After INF, the remaining treaty covering long-range nuclear weapons will be in jeopardy as consensus about the intrinsic value of arms control is eroded. China will stay aloof from the discussion, at least until it feels threatened by new US and Russian deployments.
See RUSSIA/US: Arms treaties erode in new era of mistrust - March 8, 2019