China's Five-Year Plan will have global impact

Outlook

There is reason to doubt, for the first time, whether China will achieve its GDP growth target in the next Five-Year Plan; if GDP growth continues to slow as it has been, the target will be missed. Even if China hits its target, living standards will still lag far behind advanced countries.

It is pinning its hopes on technology to sustain its economic development, and it already exceeds a number of developed countries in R&D spending, but judging by past performance its latest target will be tough to hit.

Impacts

• A lower growth rate is no disaster: China will still add more GDP each year than the entire economies of many countries.
• The 13th Five-Year Plan is the greenest ever; key targets are likely to be met, and clean energy will expand significantly.
• China rivals far-wealthier countries in transitioning to clean energy, but the scale of its emissions will put it under pressure to do more.