US-Mexico border links set to strengthen

Outlook

Contrary to political rhetoric, cross-border ties are strengthening, with infrastructure improvements facilitating the legal movement of goods and people. Since NAFTA came into effect in 1994, the daily volume of bilateral trade has grown to 1.4 billion dollars, while reforms, particularly in energy and telecoms, are encouraging substantial US investment in Mexico.

Both US telecoms firm AT&T and Mexico's America Movil plan to scrap roaming charges across North America, while in the auto sector, Ford has announced a 1.6-billion-dollar investment in a factory in San Luis Potosi, which will employ 2,800 people by 2020.

Such investments and the jobs they bring should reinforce the recent reversal in migration flows, with more Mexicans returning from the United States and fewer emigrating northward.

Impacts

• While a stronger economy may attract Mexicans home, investment is geographically concentrated and will compound nationwide inequalities.
• Reduced illegal migration from Mexico encourage further border infrastructure and protocol improvements.
• As northern border towns become safer, cross-border tourism will recover, boosting regional development and facilitating travel.
• Continued migration from Central America may see Washington's security focus turn to Mexico's southern borders with Belize and Guatemala.