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US-Mexico wall will divide, whether it is built or not

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

As emotions run high, rhetoric about the border wall suggests that good fences do not necessarily make good neighbours

Anti-Mexican immigrant rhetoric flies in the face of falling incomer numbers. Geographical obstacles and legal challenges would see costs spiral well beyond materials and labour

Source: United States Border Patrol, Pew Research Center, Media reports

Outlook

US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's proposal to build a wall along the US-Mexico border and have Mexico pay for it is both ambitious and inflammatory.

Much of the border cuts through remote territory, raising questions over how effective it would be. Nevertheless, the concept will provoke strong emotions at personal and national levels until the US election on November 8, and possibly beyond.

President Enrique Pena Nieto will be criticised for the remainder of his term for his failure to stand up to Trump, whom he hosted in Mexico on August 31. This could damage the chances of his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) in Mexico's 2018 presidential elections.

Impacts

  • Criticism of Pena Nieto will rise in light of US Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton's rejection of his invitation to Mexico.
  • Should Trump win the US election, he will struggle to live up to his promise to build the wall.
  • Any effort to prevent remittance flows from undocumented migrants could affect legal migrants too, resulting in legal challenges.
  • With US-Mexico migration trends reversing, some of those worst affected by a wall could be Central American migrants, fleeing gang violence.

See also