UK 'pivot' to ASEAN to see more post-Brexit engagement

Outlook

Former Prime Minister David Cameron's administration began a diplomatic, trade and defence 'policy pivot' to ASEAN and South-east Asia, including counterterrorism, cyber and maritime security, research and education, pro-environment policies and promoting the rule of law.

Following the UK vote to leave the EU, Prime Minister Theresa May's government is forging a new foreign and trade policy. This will see increasing focus on South-east Asia and its growing, integrating market of 630 million people, though some ASEAN governments are authoritarian and the region faces terrorism and insurgency risks.

The post-Brexit United Kingdom will offer South-east Asian investors opportunities; UK Trade and Investment said in 2015 that South-east Asian investments into the United Kingdom valued 36.5 billion dollars by 2013.

Impacts

• Depending on the nature of the UK deal to leave the EU, ASEAN state-UK trade deals are likely in coming years.
• ASEAN-based investors will seek openings afforded by the cheaper pound; UK businesses will seek to export fintech and services.
• South-east Asian security risks and concerns over human and labour rights and governance could moderate deeper UK engagement.
• ASEAN's brand of regionalism differs in scope and nature from the centralised EU; Brexit will not cause ASEAN's demise.