Trump presidency presents untold challenges for Mexico
Trump's election perhaps casts more uncertainty over Mexico than anywhere else outside the United States
Source: Oxford Analytica, media reports
Outlook
Trump's policies are still vague and often appear ill-conceived. Nevertheless, his aggressive anti-Mexican rhetoric suggests that his administration will have a detrimental impact on US-Mexico relations in numerous ways: politically, economically and socially. Precisely what difficulties will arise and the extent of the damage they cause will only become clear when he is in office.
One certainty is that Trump's election puts President Enrique Pena Nieto in an awkward situation. While pragmatic politics suggests the need for friendly relations, Pena Nieto's past efforts to build diplomatic bridges have weakened him domestically and tested the public's patience. The remainder of his term is likely to consist of damage limitation for himself, his Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and Mexico.
Impacts
- Crude attempts to address the US trade deficit with Mexico could destroy the Mexican auto industry, harming US manufacturers in the process.
- With over half of Mexico's gasoline imported from the United States, the weak peso will push up prices, to be liberalised in 2017.
- Mexico may be forced to diversify its trade relations, strengthening partnerships with the EU, China or the rest of Latin America.
- How Pena Nieto deals with Trump is likely to have a major impact on the outcome of Mexico's 2018 presidential election.