Competition over Northern Syria could be explosive

Outlook

Having backed Syrian rebels to expel IS from Al-Bab, Turkey will push to lead the upcoming assault on Raqqa. It has presented two possible routes; however, the longer one is blocked by a new, Russian-backed Syrian government advance south of Manbij. The shorter route, through Tel Abyad, would cross Kurdish-dominated territory and risk escalating tensions with Washington.

Kurdish-led forces are now close to Raqqa. Given their greater numbers and proven capabilities, the United States will support their assault. However, Turkey refuses any cooperation with the Kurds, who it sees as terrorists. There is a serious risk of military escalation.

Impacts

• The new connection of Kurdish and government territory will allow trade, though Kurdish-led rebels still consider the regime an enemy.
• Eventual recapture of Raqqa would bolster US President Donald Trump’s narrative of defeating IS.
• Neither Kurdish nor Turkish forces would be accepted as long-term occupiers of Raqqa, a Sunni Arab city.
• The next offensive against IS would be along the Euphrates Valley towards Deir ez-Zour, where the Syrian government has a stronger presence.