US and Chinese interests diverge over North Korea

Outlook

Both Beijing and Washington ultimately want denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula, but probably accept that this is no longer realistic. In negotiating with each other over how to deal with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang, Beijing’s and Washington’s interests diverge. Each wants the other to take action that involves incurring a disproportionate share of the risk or cost and gives the other side a disproportionate share of the benefit.

Neither side is likely to get its preferred outcome. Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme is less unacceptable to China than to Washington, so Beijing likely has more modest goals and is less prepared to take risks to achieve them.

Impacts

• ‘Rewarding bad behaviour’ by compromising with Pyongyang risks encouraging other states to acquire nuclear weapons.
• Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons could benefit Beijing if leveraged to negotiate a reduction of US forces in the region.