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Venezuelan migrant outflows receive cooling reception

Thursday, March 29, 2018

The number of Venezuelans leaving the country has threatened to swamp some neighbours, amid rising hostility

Neighbouring Colombia is bearing the brunt of the exodus, but other countries also face challenges in managing the outflow.

Source: IOM, Bloomberg, national migration services, Oxford Analytica

Outlook

About 1.6 million Venezuelans are estimated to be living abroad, over half in Latin America, although porous borders with neighbouring countries and the fact that many Venezuelans have dual nationality (in particular Colombian, US or Spanish), make numbers difficult to determine. Over 145,000 have requested asylum.

In some countries the numbers of Venezuelans arriving increased by around 1,000% between 2015 and 2017, placing a heavy burden on some host countries such as Colombia, Brazil and Panama and generating animosity towards the migrants.

Despite reported discussions at the recent G20 finance meeting of a fund to aid Venezuelan migrants, and USAID promises of 2.5 million dollars for those in Venezuela, these efforts seem insufficient. With no end to the political and economic crisis in sight, numbers can only rise.

Impacts

  • Severe doubts over the forthcoming presidential elections in Venezuela point to a deteriorating situation with no short-term solution.
  • Modest growth prospects in most host countries will increase hostility toward incomers competing for jobs.
  • Most Venezuelan emigres are not entitled to vote from abroad, implying a significant loss of opposition votes if fair elections are held.

See also