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Venezuela border pressures will mount

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Border closures risk clogging a safety valve but migrant outflows will continue

Tensions will mount at border crossings as roadblocks seek to stop aid convoys

Source: UNHCR; IOM; Oxford Analytica

Outlook

UN agencies now estimate that there are some 3.4 million Venezuelan refugees outside the country, 2.7 million of them in Latin America -- more than double the estimates from one year ago -- and the strain on host governments is rising commensurately.

Many Venezuelans also cross the Colombian and Brazilian borders regularly to work or to buy supplies unobtainable at home. Disruption from recent border closures could raise tensions further.

Recent rumours of possible border blockades or even military intervention being “on the table” could in the near term drive a renewed stream of migrants into increasingly unwelcoming host countries.

Impacts

  • The migrant crisis is likely to get worse before it gets better.
  • The strain on already frayed infrastructure and local economies may prompt further bouts of violence against migrants.
  • Tensions at border flashpoints could prompt new clashes with troops that could escalate.

See also