Risks and opportunities 2019 - Upcoming elections

Outlook

The three largest democracies are due to hold elections in 2019: India, Indonesia and the EU. Campaigns in all three will turn increasingly nationalist, with the additional dimension in the first two of religious tensions as the races narrow.

Gains by right-wing parties are expected in May’s European Parliamentary (EP) elections, extending the trend seen in national elections in member states since 2016 of populist rejection of ruling elites. Immigration, with its racist obverse, is the lightning-rod issue. Events may force early elections in Germany and the United Kingdom.

In Africa, disputed elections may weigh on Mozambique, Nigeria and Congo. Polls in Mauritania, Mali and Chad may be delayed.

Impacts

• Pre-poll violence is likely in both India and Indonesia.
• Right-wing gains in the EP elections could trigger a collapse of Germany’s governing coalition, bringing early federal elections.
• A close contest in Nigeria will raise fears of a post-poll economic crisis.
• Conflict resolution and reforms will be on hold in Ukraine pending hard-to-predict presidential and legislative elections.