Moscow will prioritise IS inmates in north-east Syria

Outlook

Turkey on October 9 began an invasion of north-east Syria against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF were US partners against Islamic State (IS), but as Washington withdraws, the SDF have struck a deal with President Bashar al-Assad for protection. Assad’s army has begun deploying in several cities, although Turkey has been able to continue its advance in other areas.

The SDF operates prisons holding IS militants. They do not publicise information on these, but Russian army figures indicate most prisons are located away from the focus of Turkish operations. They also note that separate displacement camps house more than 120,000 people from 36 countries. As Damascus moves in, its partner Moscow will prioritise securing these facilities, seeking to prevent Russian-national fighters from returning to the North Caucasus.

Impacts

• Turkish airstrikes may still endanger security at prisons away from the front lines.
• Prison breaks are possible if forces guarding facilities are diverted to combat operations.
• IS combatants’ families are held in the displacement camps, some of which may be directly impacted by fighting.