COVID-19 gains pace despite Latin America lockdowns

Latin America has over 7 million cases and 270,000 deaths, up from 2 million and 100,000 at end-June

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control , ECLAC, Pan American Health Organization

Outlook

According to the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), five of the ten most affected countries in the world are now in Latin America -- Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru -- although Chile, where cases are easing, has similar numbers.

With GDP across the region set to fall to 2010 levels this year and foreign exports contracting by an estimated 23%, growth, unemployment and poverty will return to pre-pandemic levels only slowly.

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru all made large international bond issues in the second quarter to ease short-term financing conditions; Argentina cannot do so.

Impacts

  • AstraZeneca plans to produce a vaccine in Argentina and Mexico will bring hope but no rapid solution.
  • Some 2.7 million companies are expected to close permanently, having failed to survive lockdowns.
  • An estimated rise in poverty of some 3 million people will wipe out a decade of gains.
  • Lockdown compliance will fall as cases soar despite months of restrictions.

See also