Allegiances collide in Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict

Outlook

Turkey is the most divisive external actor in the Karabakh conflict, as friend to Azerbaijan and foe to Armenia. Russia has made it clear it sees no role for Ankara in the conflict or the Russian-US-French-mediated talks process. Other relationships reflect geopolitical choices, arms purchases and energy ties. Russia tries to maintain cordial relations with Azerbaijan as well as Armenia, though the conflict places its security alliance with Yerevan under severe strain.

Armenia relies on discount-priced Russian weapons while Azerbaijan’s top arms supplier is now Iran’s mortal enemy Israel. Despite the rhetoric, Turkish arms sales to Azerbaijan are comparatively modest, but showed a sixfold year-on-year increase in January-September.

Impacts

• Iran, historically sympathetic to Christian Armenia and less so towards Shia-majority Azerbaijan, wants to stay neutral.
• Iran’s ethnic Azerbaijanis will press for unambiguous support for Baku, but allowing fiery nationalist sentiment is a risk to Tehran itself.
• Another neighbourhood actor, Georgia, manages to maintain good relations with Baku and Yerevan, Ankara and Tehran, but not Moscow.
• Switching from Russian to Israeli arms imports suggests Azerbaijan has enough heavy weapons and wants drones and other high-tech systems.