1. Home
  2. Regions
  3. Middle East / Africa
  4. North Africa

COVID-19 control will be slow for most of North Africa

Thursday, March 11, 2021

Most North African countries, except Morocco, are in the early stages of vaccination or have not even begun

Infographic exploring the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in North Africa, looking at cases and deaths in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. A second section investigates vaccine orders: Morocco has made good progress in ordering enough to cover its population, but other countries fall short.

Source: Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Tracker; UNICEF COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard; The Graduate Institute Geneva Global Health Centre

Outlook

Tunisia appears to be the North African country worst affected by COVID-19; years of governance problems and economic stagnation have seen its health sector come under severe strain. Yet despite reporting lower cases and deaths, Libya, Egypt and probably Algeria are almost certainly vastly undercounting. Egypt at 100.4 million people has nine times the population of Tunisia (11.7 million), and although only 16% of its population is over the age of 60, that is still some 16 million people at higher risk from COVID-19.

Libya and Tunisia are behind on immunisation campaigns, which has already begun elsewhere in North Africa. Yet it is Egypt that could prove most problematic epidemiologically; COVID vaccines will not be free except for health workers and the poorest. It is doubtful that there will be high vaccine take-up among its majority young population.

Impacts

  • Morocco is leading roll-outs in the region and will be well placed to open in time for the 2021 summer tourism season.
  • Mismanagement of vaccine roll-outs could add fuel to protests in Algeria and Tunisia.
  • Libya will struggle to control the pandemic, but unifying the government could improve the country’s epidemic outlook.

See also