China may trump India in South Asia vaccine diplomacy
The region’s countries are racing to secure vaccines as they try to manage upsurges in COVID-19 cases
Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering; Our World in Data; Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India; Bridge Consulting; media reports
Outlook
India’s break on sales and grants of COVID-19 vaccines abroad will prompt many of its neighbours, not just its enemy Pakistan, to rely more on shots from its strategic rival China.
Delhi will resume jab shipments, but probably not in any sizeable quantities until October at the earliest. Its immediate priority is to ramp up production and increase vaccination rates domestically. Although daily new coronavirus cases are on a downward trajectory, the authorities will be wary of a potential third wave.
China’s South Asia vaccine diplomacy may eclipse India’s by the end of the year, increasing Beijing’s regional influence.
Impacts
- Beijing could use vaccines as leverage in negotiations with South Asian partners over infrastructure agreements and financial assistance.
- India is unlikely to procure shots from China, given the current strain in bilateral ties.
- Russian vaccine supplies to South Asia will increase, but not overtake the quantity of Indian- or Chinese-made jabs in the region.
See also
- India’s key vaccine challenge is at home, not abroad - Nov 25, 2021
- India will not revive vaccine shipments until 2022 - Aug 5, 2021
- Political stability will be elusive in Nepal - Jul 19, 2021
- Bangladesh economy will ride out pandemic crisis - Jul 14, 2021
- Prospects for India to end-2021 - Jun 22, 2021
- Maldives will manage militancy and virus risks - Jun 16, 2021
- India’s vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence - Mar 18, 2021
- More graphic analysis