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China may trump India in South Asia vaccine diplomacy

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

The region’s countries are racing to secure vaccines as they try to manage upsurges in COVID-19 cases

Infographic exploring the relative case curves of the pandemic in the eight South Asian countries

Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering; Our World in Data; Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India; Bridge Consulting; media reports

Outlook

India’s break on sales and grants of COVID-19 vaccines abroad will prompt many of its neighbours, not just its enemy Pakistan, to rely more on shots from its strategic rival China.

Delhi will resume jab shipments, but probably not in any sizeable quantities until October at the earliest. Its immediate priority is to ramp up production and increase vaccination rates domestically. Although daily new coronavirus cases are on a downward trajectory, the authorities will be wary of a potential third wave.

China’s South Asia vaccine diplomacy may eclipse India’s by the end of the year, increasing Beijing’s regional influence.

Impacts

  • Beijing could use vaccines as leverage in negotiations with South Asian partners over infrastructure agreements and financial assistance.
  • India is unlikely to procure shots from China, given the current strain in bilateral ties.
  • Russian vaccine supplies to South Asia will increase, but not overtake the quantity of Indian- or Chinese-made jabs in the region.

See also