Prospects 2016 Update

Regional economies face several risks in the coming months, ranging from recession to debt distress

The second half of 2016 will see downward pressure on the economy intensify and leadership politics heat up

While low oil prices have opposing effects on the region's economies, political priorities offer more common ground

Economic prospects for the second half are cautiously optimistic, while the political and diplomatic fronts lack lustre

Fossil fuel demand will grow moderately this year, but the supply glut persists

Obama seeks to secure key achievements before departing office and hand his successor a strong international position

In an election challenging conventional politics, Clinton seeks to hold together the Obama coalition

Risks linked to commodity prices and China's growth are receding, but the outlook for emerging economies remains cloudy

Referendum delays and the economic crisis will raise tensions and violence fears in the rest of the year

The new premier's low profile and reliability suggest Erdogan is gearing up for a final push for constitutional change

The recession may be bottoming out, but no rapid political or economic recovery is at hand

Recovery should begin later this year but growth will be modest and dependent on oil price fluctuations

Regional conflicts and fallout from cheap oil will dominate the next six months

Chinese economic shifts will further affect the region in the second half

'Brexit' uncertainties combine with mixed data to suggest a 'two steps forward, two steps back' US economic outlook

Brexit's immediate political and economic consequences will be limited as new regimes emerge, but problems will build up

The United Kingdom's withdrawal weakens the EU's ability to resolve persistent social and economic problems

The Duma election will secure domestic political continuity as Moscow attempts to re-engage with the EU