Prospects 2018 Update

Much of North Africa will be preoccupied with pre-election considerations

With the government exhausted and opposition nearly extinct, the civil war will morph into an international competition

Substantial diversification measures are likely to lag regionally

The government looks set to face a rocky second half despite official optimism over the impact of a new IMF package

Economic activity is growing solidly despite tighter monetary policy and turbulent foreign policy, especially trade

Growth outlook in Central-Eastern Europe may be clouded by domestic and external headwinds

The president has opted for a technocratic government to deliver his six-year development plan

November's midterm elections will minimise the prospects for further signature legislation by this Congress.

The political and economic crisis, international isolation and falling oil output are set to worsen in the coming months

The countdown has begun to the general election, now less than one year away

Deep political uncertainty and near-term stasis will keep economic recovery modest

US foreign policy will focus largely on the Middle East and Asia for the rest of 2018

Tensions over Iran and Qatar will persist, as economic pressures ease

The government that takes power after elections in late July faces major domestic and international tests

The outlook of slow but sustained growth contrasts with the president's vision of a surge in economic performance

OPEC members and Russia have agreed to aim to raise oil output by 1 million barrels per day

Brexit will continue to dominate politics and economics for the rest of the year

Fragile electoral transitions beckon, while multiple humanitarian and security crises could worsen

Growth has momentum, but near-term risks are rising and could dim medium-term prospects

The second half of the year will be shaped by the outcome of Germany’s internal power struggle

The strengthened presidency approved by a 2017 referendum comes into effect with the June 24 elections

ASEAN will struggle to create a more united front over the region’s myriad challenges

Political factions will unite over efforts to resist US demands on Iran’s regional activities and missile programme

China enters the second half of 2018 looking steadfast and confident in the face of US pressure