Western Europe
Migration will remain key EU topic despite trends
There has been a sizeable fall in the number of irregular migrants arriving to southern Europe this year
Western EuropeEuro-area inflation stuck near 2.5% will test ECB
July euro-area headline inflation edged up to 2.6% on slightly pricier energy and core inflation was unchanged at 2.8%
EUFirmer trade could boost German and euro-area growth
The euro area grew by a firm 0.3% on the quarter in April-June but Germany contracted and only Spain is growing strongly
EUThe new EU fiscal rules will restrict budget policy
The failure of several members to markedly improve their public finances after COVID-19 has led to tighter fiscal rules
EUWeak euro-area bank lending will persist into 2025
The ECB’s latest bank lending survey shows little sign of a marked pick-up in economic activity
EUSouthern services CPI is a risk to steady ECB cuts
Inflation slowed to 2.4% in March and core prices to below 3% but services CPI remains a risk, especially in the South
EUEuro-area seems set for a long but shallow downturn
Bank lending to corporates in the euro-area fell for the first time since early 2015 while household lending also slowed
International
