Hungary

Fidesz’s grip on power is strong and, given its new post-election legitimacy, likely to expand

High voter turnout and third successive victory will support Orban in resisting EU strictures on democratic standards

Monetary policy is increasingly out of step with a robust macro backdrop and a hawkish tilt across Central Europe

A prolonged fiscal stimulus carries the risk of overheating the economy

Fidesz is likely to win upcoming elections but a by-election has sharply increased the risk of medium-term instability

Language rights for ethnic Hungarians have become a source of bilateral tensions

Populists use George Soros as a bete noire to delegitimise pluralism and enhance their own appeal

Astonishing local by-election result suggests Fidesz vulnerability but replication on a national scale is unlikely