Romania

Ponta will need loyalty of provincial party bosses to hang on to premiership

Voters' anger at scandal-ridden government overcomes any 'feel-good factor' from strong economy

The scandal over diaspora voters will energise the opposition but may not alter second-round presidential election

Ponta presidency would be more stable but less likely to reform

As Social Democrat premier, Ponta is the status-quo candidate whereas Iohannis would promote market-friendly policies

Hungarian minority party's continued participation in Romanian coalition government could depend on autonomy proposals

Unexplained and unpredicted changes in the supply of Russian gas will only increase Europe's search for better sources

Mounting political risks and geostrategic strain will derail Europe's recovery this year, blunting impact of ECB action