Europe
Divergent rules raise sanctions compliance risks
Different US, EU and UK beneficial ownership registries and divergence on regulation and enforcement powers raise risks
InternationalEast Europeans will gain influence on Western security
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has drawn attention to Central-Eastern European security, shifting the focus eastwards
Eastern EuropeEU countries will struggle to externalise asylum
The idea of externalising asylum procedures is gaining traction in some EU countries
EUUkrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on
European solidarity in support of Ukraine is coming under increasing pressure due to disputes over agricultural trade
UkraineFrench government faces a difficult fiscal dilemma
France’s weak GDP growth outlook carries important economic and political risks
FranceIron ore is set to face a supply surplus from 2025/26
Iron ore -- the best industrial commodity performer in 2023 -- will be well supported by fundamentals this year
InternationalEastern Europe's rate policies diverge with Czech cut
The Czech central bank has begun easing interest rates, they continue falling in Hungary and hold steady in Poland
Eastern EuropeSwitzerland will be slow to harden its China position
Swiss neutrality and economic interests have seen Bern become one of Beijing’s closest partners in the West
Switzerland
