Europe
Trump AI policy would prioritise US-China competition
The Trump campaign has made no clear statements on his approach to the increasingly significant issue of AI policy
United StatesFarmer concerns will shift EU climate policy
Farmer pressure will force the EU to dilute green deal policies further
EUHungary’s Orban will probably survive Bicske scandal
Hungary will have a new president to replace Novak, sacrificed over a children’s-home scandal
HungaryDiamond sanctions will have a modest impact on Russia
New G7 sanctions on Russia's diamond exports are being introduced in several stages
RussiaGreater risks lie ahead for Italy’s government
Italy’s right-wing coalition has proven stable but political and economic challenges will increase
ItalyAny recovery from the UK recession will be very modest
The economic slowdown accelerated towards the end of 2023 with the economy entering technical recession
United KingdomGermany will struggle to meet its defence objectives
There are strong doubts regarding Germany’s capacity to maintain current levels of defence spending after 2026
GermanySolutions struggle to cut EU small-firm funding woes
Lack of financing for smaller firms drags more on innovation and GDP in Europe than in the United States
International
