Europe
Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane
Moscow is seeking close ties with Central Asian states that it considers to be within its sphere of influence
Central AsiaProspects for the euro-area in 2024
Sticky inflation and restrictive monetary and fiscal policy will ensure growth remains below 1% next year
EUTripling renewable power scale by 2030 is unfeasible
Solar photovoltaics growth could exceed expectations, but wind power growth on the scale required looks unlikely
InternationalRussia will continue to prioritise the Arctic
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of NATO has upset Moscow’s strategic approach to the Arctic
RussiaFar-right threat in Ireland will intensify
Immigration, a housing crisis and conspiracy theories are fuelling far-right activism
IrelandGaza overspill is a possible risk to Balkan security
Kosovo is the main Balkan security risk, although the conflict in Gaza and refugees fleeing Palestine are extra concerns
BalkansTechnical standards firm up China's AI priorities
China's cybersecurity standards setter has proposed technical rules for generative artificial intelligence (GenAI)
ChinaDutch parties will find it hard to reject Wilders
After years in opposition, far-right leader Geert Wilders is in a strong position to lead the next government
Netherlands
