Europe
Prospects for climate diplomacy in 2024
With next year looking set to be the hottest on record, world leaders continue to drag their feet on climate change
InternationalPoland’s expected new government faces range of risks
The pro-EU opposition’s election win has cheered markets but policy risks will moderate their expectations eventually
PolandProspects for Black Sea security in 2024
Russia’s naval superiority in the region is in doubt as its fleet is being eliminated by Ukrainian missiles and drones
RussiaSlovak-Hungarian entente will not affect Western unity
After the likely departure of the PiS-led government in Poland, Fico-led Slovakia is now Hungary’s closest EU ally
SlovakiaCatalan polarisation will increase in Spanish politics
Pedro Sanchez’s deal with Catalan separatist forces has triggered major counter demonstrations in Madrid
SpainRussia will lose more influence in the South Caucasus
Distracted by its war in Ukraine, Russia is unable to perform the role of regional hegemon in the South Caucasus
CaucasusProspects for the oil market in 2024
A wide divergence in demand forecasts casts uncertainty over oil markets in 2024
InternationalProspects for the EU in 2024
Foreign policy, immigration, AI and elections will be dominant themes in EU politics over the next year
EU
