Europe
Germany’s exports will continue to struggle
High energy prices and cooling foreign demand, particularly from China, are hurting Germany’s trade position
GermanyEuropean elections will test new Greek leftist leader
Under its new leadership, the left-wing Syriza party does not yet have a clear political profile
GreeceEU-China trade tensions will increase
China will open an anti-subsidy investigation into French brandies, escalating trade tensions with the EU
ChinaGermany will liberalise its arms exports policy
Berlin is open to ditching its five-year ban on the exports of Eurofighter jets to Saudi Arabia
GermanyChinese EV investment runs risks in Hungary, Slovakia
Poland and Czechia are much less exposed to China than Hungary and Slovakia in their transitioning to EV manufacture
Eastern EuropeECB will be cautious about cutting rates too early
Headline inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.9% in December as energy price falls stabilised and services prices picked up
EUItaly’s opposition to the ESM will persist
Italy’s government has reiterated its opposition to reforms to the European Stability Mechanism
ItalyGermany faces heightened risk of labour disruptions
Workers from a wide range of sectors are threatening strike action throughout the year
Germany
