Azerbaijan

Exchange rate weakening is an ineffective mechanism in an undiversified economy lacking capacity for import-substitution

Western critics of human rights in Azerbaijan have so far been drowned out by geopolitical considerations

Azerbaijan is entering a period of moderate growth and reduced infrastructure spending

Low oil prices will restrict regime's options as it sees a rising threat from religion-based dissent

Baku fears the many Azerbaijanis who have gone to Syria may return to threaten the secular government's stability

Outage starts rumours of cyberattack but lack of back-up looks the likely culprit

Regime can use minority parties to present election as democratic but government still looks fragile

Azerbaijan stands to benefit due to its proximity to Iran, their socio-cultural affinities and improving bilateral ties