Azerbaijan

Recent shocks will affect Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia variously, depending on oil's role and ties with Russia

Pardons for some but not all political prisoners show the regime's confidence in its control of society

Any foreign-linked organisation that campaigns for human rights looks to Baku like an agent for regime subversion

Western criticism will push Baku towards Moscow but the rebalance will only go so far

Increased levels of financial intermediation would help develop the private sector and economic diversification

Economic diversification is needed not only to reduce vulnerability to shocks but also to offset depleting oil reserves

Spending plans for 2015 will have to be revised if world oil price stays below 90 dollars/barrel

Government may fall into trap of siding with Shias against Sunni militants