Azerbaijan

Observer status at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation would be a riposte to critics but Baku will not break with West

The shock to consumers from the severe and abrupt devaluation of the manat could have social repercussions

Lower oil prices will lead to some cuts on infrastructure spending in Azerbaijan but these will be limited

Recent shocks will affect Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia variously, depending on oil's role and ties with Russia

Pardons for some but not all political prisoners show the regime's confidence in its control of society

Any foreign-linked organisation that campaigns for human rights looks to Baku like an agent for regime subversion

Western criticism will push Baku towards Moscow but the rebalance will only go so far

Increased levels of financial intermediation would help develop the private sector and economic diversification