Russia/CIS
Pace of economic growth in Belarus will cool
The Belarusian economy has continued on its path of recovery from the recession of early 2023
BelarusArmenia will continue with balancing act abroad
The Armenian government is balancing competing interests at home and abroad as it seeks to enhance its security
ArmeniaRussia’s Northern Fleet will struggle to modernise
The slow pace of naval modernisation means that Russia’s most important fleet is dependent on Soviet-era vessels.
RussiaUkrainian forces will struggle to regain initiative
Despite both sides making some progress on the frontline, neither side appears capable of a decisive breakthrough
UkraineEastern Europe’s gas deliveries are on shaky ground
Fighting in Russia around key gas infrastructure has raised supply fears in Central-Eastern Europe
Eastern EuropeSanctions evasion across Central Asia will continue
The West is applying rising pressure on Central Asian countries to stem the flow of sanctioned goods into Russia
RussiaRussia’s crypto ambitions will face hard reality
Western sanctions have caused Russia to adopt a new approach to cryptocurrencies
RussiaSingle points of failure risk more global IT outages
Growing market concentration in software and cybersecurity is creating more single points of failure in IT systems
International
