Russia/CIS
Housing market distortions will hinder economic growth
Relatively high home ownership raises at least as many wider economic costs as benefits
InternationalUkraine government reshuffle increases executive power
President Zelensky has carried out the biggest overhaul of the leadership since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022
UkraineChina will dominate Russia’s car market
Western sanctions have caused a profound transformation in the Russian car market
RussiaUS election influence campaigns will be hard to tackle
US policymakers face mounting pressure to counter election threats amid intensifying foreign influence campaigns
United StatesPace of economic growth in Belarus will cool
The Belarusian economy has continued on its path of recovery from the recession of early 2023
BelarusArmenia will continue with balancing act abroad
The Armenian government is balancing competing interests at home and abroad as it seeks to enhance its security
ArmeniaRussia’s Northern Fleet will struggle to modernise
The slow pace of naval modernisation means that Russia’s most important fleet is dependent on Soviet-era vessels.
RussiaUkrainian forces will struggle to regain initiative
Despite both sides making some progress on the frontline, neither side appears capable of a decisive breakthrough
Ukraine
