Iran
Iran's presidential election to yield little change
The inclusion of a reformist candidate is intended to reverse a long-running trend of disengagement among voters
IranRussia will exploit tension but will not encourage war
Iran's missile and drone strikes on Israel on April 14 complicated Moscow's delicate balancing act in the Middle East
RussiaIran is approaching the limits of its oil expansion
Ambitious plans face constraints from production capacity and possibly reinforced sanctions
IranTurkey-Turkmen-Iranian gas swap could move quickly
Ankara and Ashkabat in March signed preliminary agreements on gas trading plans
TurkeyIsrael will carefully calibrate its Iran retaliation
Concerns about the risk of a wider regional war are not yet over
IsraelIraq’s Sunnis and Kurds face a more peripheral future
Pro-Iranian Shia parties are progressively cracking down on independent forces from other ethno-sectarian backgrounds
IraqGaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente
The focus on de-escalation that dominated regional geopolitics prior to the October 7 Gaza war has proven durable
Gulf statesRussia will strengthen food security measures
Moscow is continuing to increase its efforts to strengthen its food security
RussiaTehran will prioritise conservative consolidation
Upcoming polls are generating scant enthusiasm, but will nonetheless have long-term significance
Iran
