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Multiple COVID-19 vaccines will aid distribution

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Early vaccines may not be easily scalable, but later ones could be produced faster

Multiple vaccines are likely to emerge at different speeds and scaling capacities

Source: LSHTM COVID-19 Vaccine Tracker, WHO, Prof Annelies Wilder-Smith July 2020 presentation LSHTM

Outlook

Over 258 vaccine candidates for COVID-19 are now in development, and ten have reached the last phase of clinical trials before applying for authorisation. Past experience suggests chances of success are around 7% in the pre-clinical phase and rise to 17% once in clinical trials. McKinsey estimates seven to nine vaccines are likely to emerge, and more than 20 in an optimistic scenario.

Early results are expected by end-2020. Some of the front-runner vaccines are faster to develop, but harder to scale up, such as the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna RNA candidates. Others, such as live-attenuated vaccines, are harder to develop, but easier to produce at mass scale.

The emergence of multiple vaccines would greatly aid global distribution. The world would be able to take advantage of different production processes and facilities to avoid supply and manufacturing shortages that could occur were there only a single vaccine candidate.

Impacts

  • Different vaccines would vary in their effectiveness, including among age groups, and require different roll-out strategies.
  • Two-dose injections will require significantly more production, logistical support and awareness campaigning.
  • ‘Vaccine hesitancy’ could undermine inoculation campaigns without concerted efforts to address it.

See also