Prospects 2017

Middle East / North Africa

The political settlement of post-Islamic State Mosul will be a major preoccupation

The US election will alter the state of play in Libya, but elsewhere the primary driving force will be economics

Erdogan's increasing authoritarianism plus growing nationalism may lead to large-scale human rights abuses

Rouhani is likely to be re-elected, but a Trump administration could empower spoilers

Gulf states are seeking further cuts in public spending and a way out of the war in Yemen

Violence will continue among multiple actors, further damaging state institutions