EU
Italy-EU budget tensions may ease, for now
Italy has given in to EU demands, but the next challenge awaits later this year
ItalySpain could become more active in foreign relations
After five years of inactivity, Spain is set to expand its role in the EU and Latin America
SpainAthens will live to fight another day after Malta deal
Athens can take credit from social measures but must legislate for the pension and labour reforms it has been resisting
GreeceMonopoly of power could revive Hungarian opposition
The cause of academic freedom may motivate some but anger could spread more widely over abuse of power and corruption
HungaryKoruna appreciation may help dampen Czech inflation
Rapid growth and rising prices have led the CNB to stop capping the koruna/euro rate earlier than its target date
Czech RepublicUK trade and investment will be vulnerable to Brexit
However the trade and immigration trade-off is resolved, gravity modelling shows trade and investment will be hit hard
United KingdomOpposition boycott tactics are destabilising Albania
The outcome of June parliamentary elections is uncertain thanks to the Democratic Party’s threatened boycott
AlbaniaMay could soften her Brexit stance
The UK government will have to acknowledge that concessions may be unavoidable if it wants a favourable deal
United Kingdom
