Greece
Central bank action will drive global equity markets
High global liquidity levels support equity markets despite weak economic fundamentals
InternationalTough Greek/EU debt deal will take until very end
Reforming a public service full of supernumeraries and political appointees would raise productivity but lose support
GreeceEU is likely to renew Russia sanctions
The EU can agree on linking economic sanctions against Russia to implementation of the Minsk 2.0 accords on Ukraine
EUDebt ultimatum to Greece will meet resistance
If Athens takes the debt issue to the people, a bridging loan may be needed, since repayments fall due in the interim
GreeceWithout radical reform Greece will run up more debt
Decades of fiscal deficits, not just recent indiscipline, piled up Greece's debt mountain
GreeceProspects for the global economy in the third quarter
Structural and contingent factors are shaping the global economic landscape
InternationalGreece's choice of difficulties must come in June
Greece needs agreement with its creditors to pay the IMF but will delay to the very last minute
GreeceShort-term shifts only delay Greece's final reckoning
The crash if it comes will take the form of a run on the banks, requiring emergency measures
Greece
