Peru

The presidential election is increasingly chaotic; Fujimori would not necessarily gain Kuczynski's vote if he is barred

Fujimori's candidacy is almost certain to go ahead, but predictions of victory may be premature

Moves to disqualify leading candidates could prompt chaos, but failure to do so could raise questions of bias

An almost certain presidential run-off will involve limited policy or ideological differences

Government revenues and exports are dependent on mining output, which may stagnate as investment slows

The exclusion of the second-placed Julio Guzman will disperse the vote, favouring the frontrunner

Despite the government's good record on prioritising education, quality and skills mismatches remain problematic

Guzman seems likely to reach a second round in June; though an 'outsider', he would be unlikely to spell policy shifts