Syria
North-east Syria’s frozen conflict will erode security
An uneasy balance with Moscow, Tehran and Ankara challenges the new US president’s counterterrorism focus
SyriaInternational complexity may force wider US Syria role
Multiple foreign alliances, especially in the northeast, link the fight against Islamic State to much broader questions
SyriaSyrian and Iraqi Kurds will seek to draw in Washington
Dominant Kurdish forces in both countries are under rising military and financial pressure
SyriaSyria faces a political and economic dead end
Geneva talks exclude key actors, while the currency faces a new slide
SyriaSyrian Kurds may try to play Washington against Moscow
Kurdish-led forces in north-east Syria are balancing current reliance on Russia with hopes of the new US administration
SyriaIslamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence
The salafi-jihadist group has profited from COVID-19, but US policy shifts will change its operating environment in 2021
IraqRussia has the edge in managed competition with Turkey
Russia and Turkey pursue different aims in Syria, Libya and the South Caucasus but manage to avoid direct confrontation
RussiaSyria’s salafi-jihadist resurgence faces constraints
Divisions persist between and within Islamic State and al-Qaida, while foreign air power remains a constant threat
Syria
