Prospects 2016

Middle East / North Africa

The election is hard to predict and will largely depend on how the Kurdish issue evolves in the months beforehand

The impact of the Iran nuclear deal, Syria's civil war and low oil prices will reverberate across the region

The three post-uprising countries, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, will face an uphill battle to regain stability

Gulf states are seeking to curb Iran's influence abroad and adjust to lower oil prices at home

AKP's re-election brings short-term political stability, but probably increasing authoritarianism

The lifting of sanctions will create new challenges and opportunities for the Rouhani government

Intensified international efforts to fight Islamic State group and end the Syrian civil war will yield limited results